* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GABRIELLE AL081995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 57 57 55 55 57 60 61 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 57 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 57 49 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 25 27 33 29 33 17 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 1 11 13 13 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 2 0 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 226 223 221 179 247 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 27.0 6.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 152 122 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 131 108 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 15 13 16 18 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 77 76 75 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 16 14 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 41 48 47 49 80 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 36 40 52 47 37 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 122 112 92 51 -20 -359 -174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.4 22.4 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.6 96.7 96.8 97.2 98.0 101.3 104.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 6 11 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 13. 10. 10. 12. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15.