* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLOSSIE EP071995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 62 55 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 62 55 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 65 64 60 51 43 35 29 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 31 30 28 23 19 19 16 14 13 9 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 3 4 4 11 18 14 15 12 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 2 2 8 -1 9 -1 5 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 278 206 273 303 326 312 297 263 236 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.0 24.7 23.9 23.6 23.2 23.3 23.0 22.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 125 111 101 96 91 94 89 84 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 71 72 70 66 66 58 56 54 56 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 18 15 13 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 80 81 90 84 66 58 67 70 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 7 -13 -17 -16 -33 -13 -21 -12 -10 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 237 213 216 209 259 371 431 495 573 559 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.4 22.3 23.2 23.6 23.8 24.1 23.8 23.7 24.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.3 112.1 113.4 114.5 115.8 116.9 117.5 118.5 118.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 13 13 9 6 4 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):322/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -20. -26. -30. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. -23. -25. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -3. -10. -24. -40. -54. -66. -74. -81. -85. -88.