* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FELIX AL071995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 67 71 77 85 93 96 100 103 105 104 101 V (KT) LAND 60 62 67 71 77 85 93 96 100 103 105 104 101 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 68 72 81 89 94 93 91 91 91 90 V (KT) G05R 75 60 63 69 59 63 66 68 69 58 61 56 61 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 4 2 6 11 14 13 9 5 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 5 3 -1 0 -2 2 0 0 -2 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 34 27 118 43 24 151 90 150 101 140 136 212 99 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 151 150 146 143 141 138 138 134 131 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 144 146 142 136 132 127 123 122 116 113 107 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.2 -50.5 -49.6 -50.2 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 15 15 14 16 14 15 14 14 14 15 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 57 55 55 53 56 56 54 50 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 39 37 39 38 40 41 44 43 45 45 45 43 42 850 MB ENV VOR 65 74 72 61 55 32 22 17 29 56 68 74 21 200 MB DIV 51 70 67 30 1 35 62 46 17 47 45 1 41 LAND (KM) 1366 1267 1150 1008 863 682 660 713 889 997 916 662 450 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.1 21.0 21.1 21.9 23.4 24.7 26.5 28.3 30.0 31.7 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 53.6 54.8 56.5 58.0 60.3 62.3 64.2 65.2 67.1 68.5 70.2 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 19 15 15 16 13 12 12 10 11 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 17. 25. 33. 36. 40. 43. 45. 44. 41.