* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GABRIELLE AL081995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 57 55 54 54 57 58 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 49 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 57 50 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 19 22 27 27 29 11 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 2 10 14 14 12 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 2 1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 222 224 222 195 244 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 27.0 6.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 122 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 107 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 15 13 15 18 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 74 75 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 11 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 37 40 56 82 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 34 30 53 52 27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 112 92 81 51 -20 -379 -130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.2 22.6 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.7 96.8 97.0 97.2 98.0 101.6 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 5 10 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 12. 10. 9. 9. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12.