* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLOSSIE EP071995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 62 56 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 65 62 56 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 65 64 60 50 41 32 26 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 33 30 25 23 23 20 17 16 13 10 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 5 2 4 11 16 16 14 6 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 2 6 -2 9 -1 5 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 313 266 294 302 326 326 323 288 199 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.5 25.9 24.6 23.6 22.6 22.2 22.3 21.9 21.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 123 110 98 87 81 83 76 76 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 6 6 5 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 68 65 63 52 48 48 53 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 17 16 13 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 85 81 82 76 58 59 64 66 46 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 12 -28 -18 4 -20 -6 -18 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 167 165 163 160 193 316 356 422 467 489 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.0 24.6 25.1 24.8 25.0 25.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.2 111.8 113.0 114.0 115.7 117.0 117.6 118.5 118.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 12 12 9 7 4 5 1 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):322/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -17. -24. -31. -37. -40. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -9. -23. -39. -56. -68. -78. -86. -90. -94.