* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FELIX AL071995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 71 77 86 95 99 103 103 103 101 98 V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 71 77 86 95 99 103 103 103 101 98 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 64 68 72 80 89 94 94 91 86 82 80 V (KT) G09R 67 43 50 48 57 61 61 65 68 63 63 62 55 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 2 0 3 5 14 16 21 12 14 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 5 4 4 3 -1 -2 0 2 0 4 1 10 SHEAR DIR 18 78 112 329 4 204 26 165 148 151 123 194 261 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 151 151 149 147 143 141 139 135 133 127 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 150 147 143 138 130 126 121 118 114 108 102 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -50.3 -49.9 -50.7 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 16 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 15 13 14 700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 58 57 56 53 53 51 52 50 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 32 34 34 37 39 42 42 44 42 43 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR 84 83 77 76 56 40 22 21 30 37 49 51 -4 200 MB DIV 43 76 29 30 33 27 64 -6 69 63 31 25 -10 LAND (KM) 1259 1176 1057 892 780 596 646 784 914 1074 915 755 591 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.4 24.1 25.6 27.2 29.0 31.0 32.4 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 54.2 55.7 57.6 59.0 62.0 64.2 65.7 66.2 67.0 67.6 68.6 69.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 17 15 14 11 10 8 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 26. 35. 39. 43. 43. 43. 41. 38.