* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HUMBERTO AL091995 08/30/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 66 65 60 58 56 53 51 49 46 45 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 66 65 60 58 56 53 51 49 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 64 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 37 38 38 38 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 13 17 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 143 131 109 96 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.0 25.9 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 127 116 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 113 104 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 63 66 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 10 19 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 26 58 83 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1771 1602 1449 1328 1301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.8 34.4 36.0 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 48.1 47.3 46.0 43.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 18 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20.