* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HUMBERTO AL091995 08/30/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 67 64 57 54 51 49 46 43 40 38 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 67 64 57 54 51 49 46 43 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 66 65 63 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 62 42 47 45 42 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 13 16 24 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 4 1 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 168 124 100 100 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.2 25.8 24.3 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 130 116 104 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 118 104 93 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 8 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 60 65 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 21 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 16 0 11 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 34 52 70 61 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1749 1654 1492 1321 1211 1091 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.3 34.1 36.1 37.9 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.8 48.2 47.0 45.8 44.3 41.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 16 21 22 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. -1. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -25. -27.