* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IRIS AL101995 08/30/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 75 77 78 81 82 82 79 75 69 62 V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 75 77 78 81 82 82 79 75 69 62 V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 75 75 74 73 75 78 79 79 76 69 59 V (KT) G01R 39 45 40 41 45 49 47 59 53 53 53 52 59 SHEAR (KT) 7 11 15 9 2 11 10 8 9 9 14 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 1 2 4 0 -3 0 0 0 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 134 142 166 194 83 104 29 102 39 94 74 45 39 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 27.2 25.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 135 132 131 133 137 142 144 145 129 116 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 122 117 115 118 120 125 124 128 114 102 84 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 16 13 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 7 4 700-500 MB RH 50 53 54 53 54 53 50 44 39 38 40 51 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 23 23 24 26 28 29 29 27 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -35 -43 -37 -16 16 18 -16 -13 -46 -43 -19 -21 200 MB DIV 21 30 13 28 23 31 32 22 25 -7 11 18 23 LAND (KM) 610 670 790 881 954 1096 1298 1483 1651 1619 1344 986 794 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.3 25.1 26.2 27.5 29.4 31.6 34.6 37.9 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.7 61.3 60.5 59.8 59.1 58.0 56.3 55.2 54.8 54.5 53.5 51.5 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 8 6 8 8 10 9 14 17 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -6. -13.