* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LUIS AL131995 08/30/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 42 45 53 60 69 74 78 83 87 88 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 42 45 53 60 69 74 78 83 87 88 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 35 36 37 41 46 52 58 62 68 73 77 V (KT) G04R 30 21 25 22 24 31 30 35 35 42 43 50 47 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 4 6 8 7 9 8 10 8 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -3 -8 -4 -6 0 -2 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 348 268 214 244 230 191 231 237 232 215 205 216 226 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 128 128 127 129 130 132 134 135 137 137 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 116 120 123 119 125 124 126 128 133 132 130 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 69 71 66 65 66 64 60 58 54 52 49 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 18 19 21 22 24 25 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 34 23 3 -6 1 3 14 31 42 45 49 53 55 200 MB DIV 35 61 67 93 67 57 47 57 40 43 77 75 62 LAND (KM) 1767 1812 1740 1840 1901 1917 1785 1632 1531 1416 1271 1162 1110 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.2 14.1 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 34.1 33.5 34.5 35.1 36.5 38.6 40.3 42.2 44.2 46.7 48.7 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 2 5 9 6 10 9 8 9 13 10 8 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):291/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 18. 25. 34. 39. 43. 48. 52. 53.