* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HUMBERTO AL091995 08/30/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 67 66 63 62 61 60 59 59 58 58 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 67 66 63 62 61 60 59 59 58 58 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 67 66 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 37 32 35 37 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 10 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 0 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 154 153 138 131 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.7 26.8 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 135 126 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 121 113 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 56 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 25 21 20 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 3 35 58 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1838 1716 1567 1418 1347 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.6 33.1 34.8 36.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.7 48.8 48.2 47.0 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 18 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.