* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LUIS AL131995 08/30/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 46 51 58 62 66 69 70 72 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 46 51 58 62 66 69 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 35 36 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 24 22 18 19 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 275 248 258 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 130 130 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 127 127 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 66 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 30 19 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 61 56 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1800 1855 1819 1797 1703 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.1 35.2 36.5 37.6 38.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):291/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. 37.