* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HUMBERTO AL091995 08/30/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 64 60 51 42 36 28 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 64 60 51 42 36 28 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 63 60 55 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 31 39 36 35 40 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 18 34 49 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 2 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 149 110 89 75 67 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.3 25.6 23.7 22.6 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 133 116 99 91 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 126 108 88 80 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 6 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 60 64 61 59 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 17 18 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 8 2 -17 122 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 27 63 109 111 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1769 1491 1210 953 827 875 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 33.9 36.8 39.6 40.8 43.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 47.7 47.0 46.5 46.7 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 28 29 20 14 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 922 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -5. -14. -23. -29. -37. -43. -47. -51. -55.