* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KAREN AL121995 08/30/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 51 54 57 57 56 56 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 51 54 57 57 56 56 57 57 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 47 48 50 53 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 31 29 32 28 26 31 28 30 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 22 26 21 19 19 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -4 0 -1 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 152 149 151 157 153 149 97 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 137 139 142 146 145 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 129 129 133 140 136 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 13 14 14 13 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 54 54 54 54 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -15 -32 -54 -46 -50 -49 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 54 55 44 32 32 60 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1589 1579 1595 1633 1678 1741 1954 1561 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.8 20.9 22.0 25.3 29.3 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.6 49.3 49.8 50.1 50.6 49.7 46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 19 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12.