* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HENRIETTE EP091995 09/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 66 62 50 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 66 62 50 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 68 64 60 52 43 34 27 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 30 31 29 28 25 22 21 18 17 16 16 14 12 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 3 3 6 9 13 12 12 16 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 225 222 200 209 260 63 30 44 60 76 69 64 62 SST (C) 26.6 25.7 24.6 23.8 23.3 22.2 21.6 21.6 21.4 21.2 20.8 20.2 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 121 110 101 96 84 77 76 73 70 67 62 60 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 68 67 63 60 56 51 44 41 38 37 34 36 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 19 20 22 8 19 27 25 24 15 20 5 200 MB DIV 14 7 22 32 45 -5 -18 -11 -16 -12 11 -7 2 LAND (KM) 106 112 224 280 308 461 649 794 852 855 787 659 511 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.1 24.5 25.0 25.6 26.2 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.5 28.3 29.2 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 113.1 114.5 115.7 116.9 119.3 121.4 122.9 123.9 124.3 124.1 123.2 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 12 11 11 8 5 4 4 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -4. -7. -16. -26. -36. -44. -50. -56. -61. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -25. -40. -56. -71. -82. -94.-105.-116.