* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HENRIETTE EP091995 09/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 65 60 47 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 65 60 47 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 68 64 59 49 40 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 38 33 34 28 27 21 19 18 15 13 11 12 11 SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 4 3 10 11 14 14 12 15 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 -2 0 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 213 242 157 130 317 36 35 42 40 49 48 40 50 SST (C) 27.2 26.1 24.4 23.3 22.8 22.1 21.4 21.1 20.4 19.9 19.2 18.2 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 125 108 97 91 82 73 71 64 59 60 60 61 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 7 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 5 700-500 MB RH 68 64 62 59 56 53 47 45 41 41 38 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 16 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 27 16 19 12 17 17 28 32 25 28 4 200 MB DIV 14 4 25 46 46 -4 -2 -7 -12 -9 10 23 23 LAND (KM) 31 41 166 196 251 417 559 625 629 599 472 321 175 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.4 28.6 29.6 30.9 32.3 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.7 114.1 115.5 116.9 119.0 120.6 121.5 122.3 122.7 122.8 122.4 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 12 9 5 6 7 6 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -4. -7. -17. -27. -37. -47. -54. -60. -65. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -28. -42. -59. -74. -88. -99.-107.-116.