* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IRIS AL101995 09/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 49 51 50 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 49 51 50 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 46 42 38 31 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 32 29 29 33 42 47 50 43 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 70 72 75 65 63 46 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 -6 -8 -9 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 93 100 97 94 85 61 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.2 18.4 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.2 18.9 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 83 84 81 79 79 77 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 79 80 74 72 72 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -50.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 52 52 48 52 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 18 25 32 35 36 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 75 128 118 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 18 9 21 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1189 1566 1069 771 624 352 222 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 47.7 47.7 48.4 48.8 48.6 48.6 49.3 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.8 31.1 24.2 19.8 17.2 11.6 8.3 3.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 42 38 23 17 18 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 59/ 40 CX,CY: 34/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -18. -20. -20. -20. -21. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 0. -6. -25. -43. -52. -64. -77. -88.