* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LUIS AL131995 09/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 117 115 113 111 107 108 110 109 108 103 98 V (KT) LAND 120 119 117 115 113 111 107 108 110 109 108 103 98 V (KT) LGE mod 120 118 114 110 107 103 97 94 93 93 93 89 81 V (KT) G02R 50 52 55 57 62 59 64 69 69 72 76 67 68 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 18 17 18 14 24 16 13 16 13 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 0 2 3 -1 4 3 1 4 9 12 SHEAR DIR 76 131 150 154 127 115 101 113 53 72 62 58 44 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 144 144 144 142 142 143 144 147 144 134 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 132 133 133 128 128 128 128 130 128 118 103 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 13 13 13 12 13 13 12 13 13 12 11 700-500 MB RH 48 48 52 51 53 58 59 59 57 55 57 63 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 38 39 39 39 40 41 43 45 44 46 45 46 850 MB ENV VOR 51 61 65 58 67 66 66 66 75 61 64 54 51 200 MB DIV 126 128 90 117 117 100 46 84 65 65 59 110 151 LAND (KM) 654 465 401 350 311 269 368 472 641 764 941 982 902 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.0 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.2 21.5 22.7 24.3 26.0 27.8 30.1 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 61.2 61.8 62.3 62.8 64.1 64.5 65.2 66.1 66.8 67.2 67.5 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 11 6 7 8 6 8 8 7 10 11 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -19. -30. -39. -46. -50. -53. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -12. -7. -4. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -12. -10. -11. -12. -17. -22.