* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HENRIETTE EP091995 09/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 67 63 52 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 67 63 52 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 68 65 62 54 45 38 31 25 20 16 DIS V (KT) G03R 29 27 29 28 26 23 21 20 19 17 16 15 16 SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 4 4 7 9 14 14 15 16 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 2 -2 -3 -7 -5 -4 -1 -1 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 196 230 177 196 271 47 28 44 58 70 83 68 74 SST (C) 26.6 25.9 25.1 24.4 23.8 22.6 22.0 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 123 115 108 101 89 81 80 79 78 75 72 72 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 5 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 64 60 55 47 43 39 35 32 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 18 18 16 15 13 11 10 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 46 50 57 48 23 31 38 35 24 12 -2 -18 200 MB DIV 26 20 25 31 43 0 -9 -18 -14 -23 2 -15 -20 LAND (KM) 130 165 254 350 372 518 704 897 1035 1144 1161 1136 1094 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.5 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.3 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 113.1 114.5 115.7 116.9 119.4 121.7 123.7 125.1 126.2 126.8 126.9 126.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 11 9 8 5 5 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -6. -14. -23. -32. -40. -46. -51. -56. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -12. -23. -36. -52. -66. -77. -89. -98.-108.