* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LUIS AL131995 09/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 117 115 112 107 104 102 104 102 102 98 93 V (KT) LAND 120 118 117 115 112 107 104 102 104 102 102 98 93 V (KT) LGE mod 120 118 115 111 108 102 96 92 90 89 88 87 81 V (KT) G03R 48 56 58 58 59 56 61 62 62 66 68 63 66 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 15 16 19 18 18 24 9 15 10 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 3 2 -1 6 1 4 16 15 SHEAR DIR 89 128 145 156 121 118 97 98 82 77 60 48 77 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 27.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 143 142 139 138 140 141 144 142 135 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 135 131 131 126 123 126 126 127 124 117 107 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 17 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 47 51 51 52 53 56 56 59 59 55 56 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 39 40 39 40 39 41 41 44 44 45 45 45 850 MB ENV VOR 65 76 73 69 78 76 77 70 86 71 72 65 48 200 MB DIV 146 102 105 106 128 96 46 43 73 49 61 70 46 LAND (KM) 697 590 487 443 422 359 423 510 630 812 952 1116 1158 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.2 20.3 21.5 22.7 24.0 25.8 27.4 29.1 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 59.1 60.2 61.1 61.5 61.7 63.0 63.5 64.0 64.5 65.5 65.7 66.0 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 8 7 8 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -10. -20. -31. -40. -48. -52. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -16. -13. -8. -5. -2. -0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -18. -16. -18. -18. -22. -27.