* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IRIS AL101995 09/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 52 53 52 47 37 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 52 53 52 47 37 27 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 46 42 38 32 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 28 30 31 37 44 47 56 45 35 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 74 71 75 64 59 40 24 18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -9 -6 -5 -9 -10 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 87 94 96 92 78 65 68 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.6 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.2 18.4 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 81 81 80 78 77 79 76 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 77 77 74 71 69 72 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -50.3 -51.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 2 2 3 2 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 51 49 52 61 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 21 29 34 36 37 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 87 125 118 133 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 33 23 34 34 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1161 1539 1158 893 685 418 359 112 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 48.4 48.4 48.9 48.9 49.1 49.3 48.5 48.8 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.2 32.1 25.8 21.8 18.7 14.3 11.5 6.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 38 34 23 16 11 17 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 59/ 40 CX,CY: 34/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 5. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 7. 11. 13. 11. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 3. 2. -3. -13. -22. -30. -41. -54. -65.