* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HENRIETTE EP091995 09/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 70 66 62 50 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 70 66 62 50 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 69 64 59 51 42 33 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 39 32 41 34 32 24 22 18 17 18 17 16 11 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 3 4 8 10 10 15 12 19 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 1 -7 -1 -3 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 222 207 171 181 275 36 45 46 33 56 49 58 57 SST (C) 27.2 26.5 24.9 22.9 22.8 22.3 21.5 20.9 19.8 19.2 18.1 17.5 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 129 114 92 90 84 75 69 60 60 60 58 58 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 5 5 4 2 3 2 3 2 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 69 65 62 59 55 51 44 41 37 35 34 36 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 18 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 28 28 32 24 20 19 30 38 29 34 11 200 MB DIV 17 7 36 43 39 -7 2 -12 2 -9 -2 10 16 LAND (KM) 47 31 147 158 201 352 479 525 514 451 277 154 92 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.5 25.2 25.9 26.4 26.6 27.1 27.8 29.4 30.6 32.2 33.3 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.3 113.7 115.0 116.3 118.3 119.8 120.7 121.4 121.5 121.2 120.9 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 14 13 11 9 5 7 7 7 8 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -7. -16. -26. -36. -47. -54. -60. -65. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -12. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -13. -25. -39. -56. -71. -84. -96.-108.-118.