* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JULIETTE EP111995 09/22/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 78 73 68 57 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 84 78 73 68 57 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 78 73 68 61 54 47 40 34 29 25 23 V (KT) G00R 28 32 34 34 31 32 25 24 24 23 22 19 17 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 10 13 22 22 24 27 26 19 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 2 5 3 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 318 352 11 26 5 13 30 35 27 32 26 11 3 SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 117 115 114 113 111 109 109 115 120 123 125 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -54.6 -55.2 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 55 51 52 53 53 53 52 52 47 41 38 38 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 20 17 15 13 10 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 24 27 37 37 27 8 -10 -11 0 3 5 200 MB DIV -28 4 16 10 23 10 26 5 -13 -9 -5 7 4 LAND (KM) 848 894 944 1027 1094 1179 1189 1163 1199 1291 1384 1465 1529 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.3 19.7 18.9 18.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.2 119.2 120.4 121.4 122.5 122.9 123.0 123.5 124.1 124.5 124.7 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 8 3 2 2 3 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -24. -31. -37. -41. -44. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -33. -45. -58. -69. -79. -84. -88. -90.