* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARILYN AL151995 09/26/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 37 40 43 46 49 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 37 40 43 46 49 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 27 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 22 26 25 25 21 23 17 19 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 15 18 27 20 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 -1 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 134 157 141 138 139 175 188 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 131 130 128 122 121 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 109 109 107 100 98 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 -56.0 -55.8 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 12 10 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 45 46 47 47 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 9 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 30 20 -1 -12 -42 -69 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 5 -14 -5 -32 -46 -33 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1687 1702 1695 1667 1636 1566 1580 1450 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.0 31.3 31.7 32.0 32.7 32.6 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.7 53.8 53.2 52.7 51.8 51.0 50.7 50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 4 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. 28.