* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARILYN AL151995 09/26/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 39 39 42 44 47 50 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 39 39 42 44 47 50 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 29 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 27 28 25 25 24 24 21 20 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 12 14 24 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 0 0 0 3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 179 140 144 140 169 184 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 129 127 123 120 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 111 109 108 103 98 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.9 -56.1 -55.9 -55.8 -56.0 -55.8 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 44 45 48 51 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 39 30 3 -8 -38 -70 -86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 13 13 17 -8 -24 -32 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1687 1687 1699 1669 1631 1554 1555 1410 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.7 32.1 33.0 33.1 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.7 53.7 52.7 52.1 51.1 49.3 48.7 48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 8 9 7 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 17. 19. 22. 25. 29.