* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JULIETTE EP111995 09/26/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 24 20 19 19 18 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 31 35 36 35 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 13 9 7 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 29 31 28 26 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 95 94 93 93 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 36 34 32 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 11 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -17 -12 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -29 -32 -35 -18 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 524 552 589 573 551 487 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.7 23.8 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.1 118.5 118.5 118.3 117.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -15. -23. -31. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -20. -34. -45. -57. -68. -76. -85. -91. -96.