* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARILYN AL151995 09/26/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 34 37 38 43 47 51 54 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 34 37 38 43 47 51 54 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 28 30 32 35 41 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 23 23 19 19 18 19 18 18 18 22 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 17 18 21 17 13 5 8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -2 1 0 -1 -7 -6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 136 120 136 152 191 201 221 221 189 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 127 129 129 130 128 129 133 135 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 103 103 105 106 106 104 103 111 116 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.8 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.8 -55.5 -55.5 -55.2 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 12 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 44 46 46 44 42 41 42 44 44 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 22 9 -14 -27 -40 -60 -74 -57 -45 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -3 -24 -27 -44 -65 -26 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1598 1585 1577 1562 1591 1653 1705 1715 1715 1713 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.7 31.8 32.0 31.9 31.6 31.2 31.1 31.1 29.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.5 55.2 55.2 55.0 54.3 53.5 53.2 53.2 53.2 54.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 4 4 4 1 0 7 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33.