* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JULIETTE EP111995 09/26/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 23 22 18 19 15 15 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 29 35 37 38 37 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 14 10 6 4 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 16 21 21 22 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 107 106 107 107 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 37 35 31 28 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 11 6 4 9 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -6 -19 -27 -20 -20 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 733 818 851 877 916 982 1005 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.2 20.9 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.4 119.8 120.3 120.5 121.1 121.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 3 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -7. -14. -21. -27. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -32. -40. -47. -52. -58. -61. -63.