* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JULIETTE EP111995 09/26/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 33 24 18 17 15 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 33 37 36 37 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 1 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 19 18 15 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 25.2 25.6 25.6 25.3 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 113 116 116 113 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 37 37 36 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -1 -1 -5 -6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -18 -12 -19 -22 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 463 440 413 383 362 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 115.9 115.4 115.2 115.2 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -16. -25. -32. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -14. -24. -32. -41. -50. -57. -63. -66. -67.