* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OPAL AL171995 09/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 53 64 76 85 90 96 101 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 27 27 27 27 34 46 55 60 66 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 23 24 26 26 31 40 51 65 77 86 V (KT) G03R 21 17 17 15 17 19 20 25 26 25 27 37 35 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 4 8 9 4 4 6 4 6 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -9 -2 0 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 7 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 242 256 243 219 70 109 133 141 68 275 265 191 171 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 19.9 20.7 22.5 24.3 26.1 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 158 78 80 87 96 112 164 165 164 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 143 74 75 79 86 100 148 150 144 152 150 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 12 14 15 12 15 12 15 12 16 13 15 700-500 MB RH 75 73 76 74 70 67 64 61 60 62 65 64 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 10 11 12 13 15 17 17 17 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 49 61 82 83 88 94 91 74 72 64 86 74 105 200 MB DIV 68 52 45 56 56 59 55 47 28 29 48 32 56 LAND (KM) 129 86 47 -10 -102 -81 -69 36 92 128 229 345 251 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 18.7 19.1 20.3 20.5 20.2 21.6 22.0 21.3 21.3 21.9 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.7 87.1 87.6 88.2 89.2 89.7 89.2 89.7 91.5 92.5 93.5 94.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 10 8 5 3 5 7 7 3 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 39. 51. 60. 65. 71. 76.