* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NOEL AL161995 09/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 41 47 54 68 82 92 101 105 104 101 101 V (KT) LAND 30 34 41 47 54 68 82 92 101 105 104 101 101 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 46 54 64 73 78 77 73 69 V (KT) G04R 42 32 35 38 36 42 46 50 58 56 56 49 50 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 4 3 6 12 18 18 26 32 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 -1 1 0 9 5 9 5 1 SHEAR DIR 227 260 258 237 255 153 88 95 46 68 63 78 54 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 151 148 143 138 133 128 128 127 124 124 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 159 148 147 138 129 127 122 119 117 110 110 108 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -53.6 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 64 61 60 61 62 62 62 55 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 20 22 22 23 25 27 29 31 31 33 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 66 76 76 57 58 46 40 46 59 66 103 114 122 200 MB DIV 154 158 144 125 159 73 72 65 128 48 46 -2 15 LAND (KM) 1464 1250 1252 1298 1330 1336 1474 1664 1911 2138 2336 2282 2241 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 10.9 11.4 12.3 13.2 13.8 15.0 16.9 18.9 20.6 21.9 22.9 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 42.2 42.6 42.8 43.5 44.2 43.7 43.2 42.2 41.0 39.7 39.1 38.7 STM SPEED (KT) 22 13 8 10 8 4 8 11 10 11 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 14. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 17. 24. 38. 52. 62. 71. 75. 74. 71. 71.