* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OPAL AL171995 09/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 23 30 35 40 46 50 53 54 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 13 9 16 15 13 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 11 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -9 -8 -4 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 270 257 245 264 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.6 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A 61 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A 60 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 11 14 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 80 79 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 85 93 87 81 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 49 38 64 73 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -10 -42 -10 -22 -47 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.5 18.8 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.6 88.2 88.2 88.0 87.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 4 4 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -10. -8. -7. -5. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. -2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32.