* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARILYN AL151995 09/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 31 36 41 45 48 53 58 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 31 36 41 45 48 53 58 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 19 19 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 28 22 21 20 18 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 18 17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 -3 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 184 172 182 198 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 130 130 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 109 107 110 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -55.8 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 45 45 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -31 -34 -57 -64 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -32 -21 -42 -39 -42 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1747 1722 1701 1653 1609 1444 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.9 31.2 31.7 32.1 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.7 53.6 53.2 53.2 53.2 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 56/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 33. 38. 43.