* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OPAL AL171995 10/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 86 74 64 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 69 51 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 51 32 25 19 32 26 13 18 11 15 28 29 0 SHEAR (KT) 33 29 34 45 54 70 83 79 80 82 94 95 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 3 8 6 -3 -11 -15 -9 -1 -5 -11 N/A SHEAR DIR 54 55 51 46 48 51 53 48 48 61 66 85 N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.0 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.1 17.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A 68 71 69 65 70 72 70 74 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A 67 68 66 61 67 70 67 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -48.2 -48.6 -48.5 -48.8 -49.5 -49.9 -50.8 -50.0 -52.0 -54.1 -54.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 48 48 48 41 43 44 37 35 33 31 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 41 37 35 34 35 31 24 23 16 12 10 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 104 149 163 140 188 179 156 169 125 32 -8 N/A 200 MB DIV 138 151 171 218 202 151 107 76 50 11 15 -1 N/A LAND (KM) -36 -277 -571 -714 -647 -680 -759 -708 -416 -188 11 306 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 33.0 35.6 38.5 41.2 45.0 47.9 49.4 48.2 46.7 44.5 42.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.3 85.5 84.2 82.3 79.7 78.2 77.7 73.6 67.7 63.2 59.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 25 29 31 27 18 13 4 17 25 18 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 20 CX,CY: 7/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -32. -45. -57. -68. -76. -81. -82. -81. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -17. -24. -35. -42. -42. -43. -41. -45. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -5. -2. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -12. -13. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -14. -26. -36. -65. -92.-115.-127.-140.-148.-161.-174.-187.