* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NOEL AL161995 10/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 61 59 53 47 45 44 43 43 43 44 V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 61 59 53 47 45 44 43 43 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 62 62 60 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 65 36 34 33 31 34 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 10 24 30 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 -2 -5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 234 166 204 211 203 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.3 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 100 100 100 101 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 84 86 87 88 90 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -56.1 -55.9 -55.0 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 10 10 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 42 42 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 25 23 22 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 8 -1 -7 3 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -1 -39 -27 -36 15 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1858 1791 1836 1856 1926 2076 2076 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.5 32.3 32.4 32.2 32.1 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.2 43.2 42.6 41.8 40.7 38.0 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 6 8 10 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):351/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -7. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16.