* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OPAL AL171995 10/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 86 74 63 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 69 51 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 63 34 23 19 36 25 14 12 12 12 30 25 0 SHEAR (KT) 32 29 35 44 57 74 96 92 65 71 95 103 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 5 10 8 -1 -17 -23 -7 -6 -13 -17 N/A SHEAR DIR 53 52 50 46 45 54 56 45 47 64 69 87 N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A 12.7 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.9 15.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A 72 71 68 65 68 71 69 72 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A 70 68 64 61 64 68 66 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -48.3 -48.7 -48.7 -48.9 -49.7 -49.6 -50.6 -51.3 -52.4 -54.1 -54.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 48 47 40 43 50 44 37 32 30 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 42 37 34 34 35 31 20 19 17 15 9 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 98 144 147 129 159 172 146 130 135 53 -6 N/A 200 MB DIV 140 154 156 216 205 160 97 87 52 18 -4 -13 N/A LAND (KM) -47 -311 -580 -728 -657 -646 -629 -615 -535 -129 5 182 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 33.3 35.8 38.8 41.6 45.4 47.8 49.3 49.3 48.1 45.6 43.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.1 85.3 84.1 82.2 78.5 76.3 76.5 75.3 69.5 65.0 60.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 25 29 31 28 19 11 5 12 22 16 21 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 20 CX,CY: 7/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -31. -44. -57. -68. -77. -82. -83. -82. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -17. -24. -36. -44. -47. -45. -41. -44. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -5. -2. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -16. -17. -18. -21. -26. -27. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -14. -26. -37. -64. -94.-122.-136.-142.-145.-160.-174.-188.