* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NOEL AL161995 10/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 62 60 55 48 46 48 37 27 21 16 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 62 60 55 48 46 48 37 27 21 16 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 64 64 61 57 53 50 45 36 30 28 V (KT) G06R 61 44 50 52 48 42 38 40 45 51 44 32 27 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 23 31 42 29 18 33 48 38 16 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 0 0 -2 13 15 17 22 10 2 2 SHEAR DIR 110 284 248 228 220 214 178 139 44 25 36 38 163 SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.6 24.5 23.2 20.9 19.8 19.0 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 103 104 103 102 104 106 100 86 79 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 84 87 90 90 90 93 98 95 78 71 70 67 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.7 -56.7 -55.9 -55.4 -54.8 -54.5 -55.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -55.5 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 5 4 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 43 41 40 41 45 49 42 31 34 30 38 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 29 29 28 27 25 21 23 29 26 23 18 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 10 -2 -13 -24 22 104 109 115 61 2 -29 200 MB DIV -3 -25 -35 -24 -31 23 -1 34 61 16 -6 8 22 LAND (KM) 1787 1728 1765 1828 1916 2056 2203 1943 1615 1129 833 601 411 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.7 32.3 31.9 31.5 31.1 31.2 32.2 35.6 39.7 41.4 42.3 43.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.7 44.2 44.3 43.7 42.6 40.2 37.2 33.2 27.5 22.2 19.0 16.3 14.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 5 8 9 12 15 24 33 21 11 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):351/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -7. -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -14. -12. -23. -33. -39. -44.