* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PABLO AL181995 10/05/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 42 55 68 78 86 94 104 113 117 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 42 55 68 78 86 94 104 113 117 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 42 48 57 65 71 79 90 99 V (KT) G08R 42 34 33 30 35 45 42 50 42 46 43 43 46 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 11 9 5 7 10 18 23 18 14 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 3 7 7 5 9 13 8 1 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 120 174 171 183 212 133 112 113 99 72 10 296 296 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 158 158 158 156 154 154 154 153 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 178 177 175 173 172 170 163 159 155 154 153 150 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 12 13 13 13 15 15 16 16 17 15 16 700-500 MB RH 66 68 63 62 61 59 53 49 51 50 51 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 19 18 20 22 23 22 21 20 21 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 61 78 56 40 38 29 20 11 5 -3 21 26 40 200 MB DIV 128 119 91 95 85 76 71 81 122 70 79 24 49 LAND (KM) 1541 1377 1329 1317 1196 925 755 678 649 648 501 459 480 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 8.8 8.9 9.3 9.5 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.7 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 32.7 35.8 38.0 40.0 41.7 45.3 48.3 50.8 53.2 55.2 57.2 59.6 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 31 26 21 18 18 17 13 13 11 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 5. 14. 22. 27. 32. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 25. 38. 48. 56. 64. 74. 83. 87.