* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ROXANNE AL191995 10/14/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 60 63 62 58 54 52 52 55 55 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 60 63 62 58 54 52 52 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 56 58 58 55 52 51 51 53 56 61 V (KT) G06R 31 35 37 42 47 53 55 48 49 42 44 47 54 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 14 18 24 19 14 17 12 10 9 3 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 0 2 7 6 11 3 6 -1 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 22 323 339 357 12 356 318 355 341 339 343 83 52 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 123 122 121 121 121 122 121 123 123 124 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 106 109 107 106 106 105 108 104 108 107 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -53.3 -52.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 8 7 6 2 3 1 4 2 8 6 10 700-500 MB RH 76 76 72 66 63 57 61 64 69 69 65 60 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 26 27 28 32 31 28 25 25 25 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 61 71 64 66 52 52 33 26 32 18 2 7 0 200 MB DIV 56 75 64 55 63 59 68 17 16 26 49 34 38 LAND (KM) 334 337 380 356 332 229 237 298 314 360 378 407 366 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.6 22.7 23.0 23.0 21.9 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.8 22.9 23.5 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.1 93.7 93.0 92.7 92.2 92.6 93.2 93.8 93.7 93.7 93.7 93.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 5 5 4 5 3 5 1 5 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):322/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 13. 12. 8. 4. 2. 2. 5. 5.