* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEBASTIEN AL201995 10/22/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 59 63 67 72 79 86 91 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 59 63 67 72 79 86 91 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 39 41 44 48 52 56 62 66 68 V (KT) G01R 41 26 28 28 28 33 30 29 26 25 28 28 36 SHEAR (KT) 12 17 15 18 23 25 21 18 18 15 24 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 3 9 10 1 0 5 4 4 5 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 115 71 77 89 77 90 57 67 45 74 52 80 78 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 135 134 137 140 144 142 139 141 139 137 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 125 115 115 121 128 132 128 122 125 125 125 113 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -55.8 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 9 9 11 11 11 12 13 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 67 64 61 61 62 57 57 58 54 51 52 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 12 13 12 14 16 15 13 13 14 16 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 44 62 62 56 58 63 74 77 72 76 88 97 98 200 MB DIV 73 56 48 40 11 16 49 43 32 62 36 47 25 LAND (KM) 1037 967 911 986 958 790 596 457 486 552 747 957 1167 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 22.0 22.4 22.2 21.6 21.2 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.7 24.7 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 56.2 57.3 57.8 57.2 57.5 59.0 60.8 62.7 63.2 63.0 61.3 59.5 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 8 1 2 5 9 10 7 3 6 9 12 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):356/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 24. 28. 32. 37. 44. 51. 56.