* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEBASTIEN AL201995 10/22/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 53 56 58 61 64 69 74 75 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 53 56 58 61 64 69 74 75 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 40 42 43 43 44 44 44 45 44 V (KT) G05R 38 33 29 29 30 38 36 37 37 39 41 37 44 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 18 25 32 36 31 28 30 31 31 26 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 5 2 -5 0 4 6 5 5 2 6 SHEAR DIR 164 117 104 107 104 104 90 73 57 54 35 25 32 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 138 135 133 137 137 136 136 133 131 131 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 122 117 113 121 122 123 120 117 111 118 101 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -55.6 -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -55.9 -55.9 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 67 63 60 58 58 51 50 49 55 52 51 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 13 15 18 18 18 19 21 26 29 32 850 MB ENV VOR 50 58 44 36 43 43 47 48 59 68 96 95 83 200 MB DIV 72 70 37 26 0 17 58 64 70 75 87 81 96 LAND (KM) 1058 1179 1251 1289 1318 1212 1089 1001 965 1069 1178 1401 1438 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.7 22.1 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 23.6 24.8 26.5 27.5 29.2 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 55.0 54.3 54.2 53.8 55.0 56.2 57.8 59.5 60.2 59.8 58.7 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 6 3 1 6 7 9 8 9 5 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):356/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 21. 23. 26. 29. 34. 39. 40.