* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNNAMED EP011996 05/14/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 28 27 26 25 24 23 20 18 17 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 28 27 26 25 24 23 20 18 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 42 32 26 21 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 292 292 300 318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 137 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 53 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 1 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 125 100 62 17 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1422 1390 1465 1554 1691 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.9 13.2 13.1 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.2 117.9 119.4 120.5 122.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13.