* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNNAMED EP011996 05/14/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 23 21 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 23 21 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 39 32 28 28 27 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 16 13 15 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 2 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 284 291 297 306 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 140 138 137 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 50 51 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 15 15 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 -3 5 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 90 36 16 -12 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1454 1475 1517 1556 1567 1608 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.8 118.9 119.6 120.0 120.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 6 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -18.