* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNNAMED EP011996 05/14/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 33 32 29 27 27 27 25 25 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 33 32 29 27 27 27 25 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 40 30 28 23 20 17 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 5 6 5 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 9 11 9 7 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 281 269 290 313 320 325 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 140 137 135 133 130 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 54 53 51 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 10 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -12 -15 -18 -19 -13 -14 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 77 43 20 -2 -28 -20 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1487 1533 1618 1696 1740 1802 1808 1879 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.4 120.7 121.7 122.4 123.2 123.3 123.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 11 8 6 3 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6.