* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNNAMED EP011996 05/14/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 33 33 32 31 30 27 26 25 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 32 33 33 32 31 30 27 26 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 30 21 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 291 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 106 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1403 1403 1448 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.5 117.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -5.