* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/23/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 81 78 64 50 43 38 34 31 29 25 V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 81 78 64 50 43 38 34 31 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 80 78 77 76 68 44 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 30 26 29 32 35 22 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 4 4 3 6 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 0 4 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 168 134 157 236 294 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.4 26.5 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 145 126 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -53.1 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 12 13 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 69 69 69 70 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 12 13 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 38 49 54 70 84 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 61 72 96 125 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 155 153 148 106 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.4 18.7 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.9 103.2 103.6 103.7 104.4 105.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -3. -12. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 0. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. -2. -15. -30. -37. -42. -46. -49. -51. -55.