* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/23/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 79 77 74 60 47 42 38 35 31 27 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 79 77 74 60 47 42 38 35 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 80 78 77 75 74 68 52 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 23 23 21 24 20 24 21 13 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 5 5 5 11 13 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 5 6 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 145 146 219 249 265 258 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 26.5 28.5 28.6 25.1 9.1 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 127 148 148 110 59 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 12 13 11 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 70 71 71 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 9 7 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 32 36 38 48 50 72 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 51 44 70 101 56 65 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 177 157 148 157 153 142 100 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.0 103.6 104.3 104.7 105.0 105.5 107.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 6 4 3 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. -2. -13. -20. -23. -27. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -20. -33. -38. -42. -45. -48. -53.