* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/26/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 29 31 30 30 28 26 22 20 17 17 15 V (KT) LAND 30 28 29 31 30 30 28 26 22 20 17 17 15 V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 24 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 12 14 14 14 15 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 20 17 17 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 4 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 250 273 276 273 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 12.9 23.2 27.6 29.3 26.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 59 91 136 154 123 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 80 83 82 81 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 62 89 112 114 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 74 90 93 101 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 77 113 133 157 142 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.9 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.0 102.9 103.0 103.5 103.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -13. -15.