* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/26/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 23 24 19 15 14 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 20 16 16 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 5 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 250 267 274 270 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.4 16.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 56 56 59 59 57 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 10 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 81 80 80 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 69 94 94 92 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 67 82 79 95 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 88 88 66 59 62 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.2 102.5 103.2 103.6 104.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 5 6 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. -31. -32. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -19. -26. -35. -44. -54. -60. -65. -69. -75.