* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/26/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 29 32 32 32 30 29 27 26 24 25 25 V (KT) LAND 30 28 29 32 32 32 30 29 27 26 24 25 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 17 15 20 27 22 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 20 20 21 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 3 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 255 280 282 276 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 9.3 23.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 59 93 160 158 159 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 79 81 83 82 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 6 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 65 126 144 162 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 76 86 94 112 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 66 111 211 264 231 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.0 16.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.7 102.7 102.5 102.3 104.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 3 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -0. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5.